Ellsworth, Maine 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

590
FXUS61 KCAR 260722
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
322 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

- Lowered QPF this morning due to large dew point depressions
  across Northern Maine which is delaying precip onset timing.

- Added drizzle late this morning into the afternoon across the
  Bangor Region to Central Highlands in the upslope areas until
  the winds shift.

- Increased wind gusts and lowered dew points for Friday with a
  well mixed northwest flow.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Light Wintry mix north, rain south tapers to rain showers/drizzle
areawide this afternoon. Another round of rain south this
evening with refreeze likely areawide tonight.

2) Well below normal temperatures Saturday, followed by
moderating temperatures Sunday, then a light wintry mix on
Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Light Wintry mix north, rain south tapers to
rain showers/drizzle areawide this afternoon. Another round of
rain south this evening with refreeze likely areawide tonight.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
Challenging forecast this morning with large dew point
depressions across Northern Maine delaying precipitation onset.
Light snow is now falling at most locations except the St. John
Valley but will be underway shortly. A warm front is lifting
north across the Downeast at this hour. A weak surface low is
tracking out of southern Quebec towards Maine within an open
500mb weak shortwave. The low will track across northern Maine
today drawing warmer air northward across the forecast area with
precipitation changing to rain areawide. Expecting 1-2 inches of
snow from the Baxter Region northward with the highest totals
in the St. John Valley, cannot rule out 2-3 inches. Hi-res
modeled soundings suggest with the low tracking overhead the
Central Highlands from Bangor region northward to southern
Aroostook the possibility of some drizzle. The winds will be
very light aloft above the surface in the lowest 2kft,
saturated profiles and given this is a southerly upslope cannot
rule out some patchy fog/drizzle.

The first low exits across the Maritimes this evening as a
second low tracks into the Gulf of Maine from Southern New
England. This will begin drawing a cold front south across the
forecast area. Expecting another round of light rain to develop
across the Central Highlands, Bangor Region and Downeast Maine
with rain showers north of there transitioning back to snow
showers. N-NW winds will begin increasing but there remains
uncertainty how fast things dry tonight before refreeze takes
place. Combination of snowmelt and rainfall could rapidly
refreeze in Northern Maine making for slick travel on untreated
surfaces. Across the areas seeing rainfall refreeze is a higher
concern because rain will taper, cannot rule out brief
snowflakes, then temperatures crash. Flash freeze is possible
for untreated surfaces from the Central Highlands to Downeast
coast including Bangor. Temperatures bottom out in the teens
north with 20s south and cold breezy NW winds develop into
Friday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Well below normal temperatures Saturday,
followed by moderating temperatures Sunday, then a light wintry
mix on Monday.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
High temperatures Saturday will be a good 10 to 15 degrees
below normal for this time of year. Fortunately, winds are not
expected to be all that strong, so wind chills are not expected
to be too extreme during the day. Temperatures will moderate
closer to normal levels by Sunday, but it will still be a few
degrees below normal for this time of year. A fast moving
weather system will approach the region Monday bringing a
snow/rain mix to northern areas Monday and the chance of rain
downeast. Temperatures are expected to rise to above normal
levels Monday afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Before 12z this morning...MVFR south, VFR north. Lowering to
MVFR north and IFR south. -SN developing right now at northern
terms with -RA/SN mixing at BGR changing to RA for BGR and BHB.
By 12z expecting IFR/LIFR with -SN north and with -RA south.
Light and variable winds becoming S 5-10kt. LLWS likely this
morning all terms.

Today...IFR/LIFR improving to MVFR north and VFR Downeast late.
Snow in the morning changes to rain and tapers off across the
north. South/southeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20
knots, becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots.

Thursday night...High uncertainty with the northern extent of
low clouds and RA. MVFR likely, with IFR and steady RA most
likely along the coast. Some improvement is possible late,
mainly across the north, where VFR is possible late. NW winds 5
to 10 kts.

Friday...VFR. NW winds 10-15kt gusting 20-30kt.

Friday night thru Sunday...Mainly VFR. N to NW wind Friday night
through Saturday. SW wind on Sunday.

Monday...MVFR possible in snow/rain.

&&

.MARINE...
The Small Craft Advisory for the Intra-Coastal Waters has been
extended to 8AM EDT Friday. Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt with
gusts up to 30 kt and seas 4 to 6 ft. Winds will shift N late
tonight and fall below SCA criteria. Seas will remain at
criteria into Friday AM. The Small Craft Advisory for the
Coastal Waters out 25nm has been extended to 2PM EDT Friday.
Southwest winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and seas 6
to 9 ft. Winds will shift N late tonight and only a few gusts
up to 25kt into Friday. Seas will remain above criteria into
Friday PM.

Small Craft Advisory conditions are possible Friday night and
again Sunday night and possible Gale Force conditions on Monday.
Light freezing spray is possible Friday night and Saturday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Friday for ANZ050-051.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for ANZ052.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TWD/JS
AVIATION...TWD/JS